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Q2 MARKET IMPROVEMENT
- 6th October
After a relatively flat summer, there is some
brighter news from the UK retail sector.
Sir Terry Leahy has
said that he believes that the worst of the economic crisis
has passed in the UK. Matching the sentiment of the latest
CBI
distributive trades survey, he predicted we are now in for a
period of slow recovery.
While markets have been rocked in the past week
by very poor employment figures from the US, the news that the
worst is over will steady some nerves. Taken alongside the
purchasing managers survey on the service sector, the news on
this side of the Atlantic seems less alarming. The survey
showed that the service sector had returned to growth in the
last quarter. As a critical part of the UK economy, this
growth data was good news. The sentiment expressed by the
purchasing managers was also significant. The view from those
at the coal-face was that the outlook for growth remained good
for the next twelve months.
It is important not to get too carried away
based on a few data points. The economic uncertainty can still
be seen in the unpredictable and changing nature of the
reports that we are getting. The outlook is still uncertain
and we could still be prone to the effects of political or
economic shocks - an escalation of the conflict with Iran or
the economic collapse of a Baltic state could have profound
and unforeseen effects.
We are also in for a slow and difficult
climb-out from the economic pit that we find ourselves in. The
capital market is not restored, consumers are cautious and
sectors such as construction have yet to see any recovery.
Behind all the talk of economic data looms the shadow of
unemployment and the misery that it will continue to bring for
millions in the next 12-18 months. There are some
opportunities opening up for the very brave at the moment, but
most people are hedging their bets and are holding onto some
cash reserves if they can.
This article is the property of Markmedia, a
Level3 Consulting brand.
Tags Marketing, Economics, UK Markets, retail
market
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